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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Predictive Policing Using Math Algorithms


Has anyone else seen and/or read Philip K. Dick's 'Minority Report'?

According to this ABC News report, police in Santa Cruz and other cities in California have started using a computer algorithm to predict where and when - down to the time of day - a crime is probable to happen. The program, developed by 2 mathematicians and an anthropologist, is based on similar programs used to predict earthquakes.

"...since the program's launch, the algorithm had correctly predicted 40 percent of crimes and had led to five arrests. In the last six weeks, Santa Cruz also saw a reduction in property crimes including car and home burglaries. Police said burglaries were down 27 percent in July compared to the same month last year."

I do believe that things which we normally perceive as random and impossible to predict, including human actions such as crime, actually do follow certain statistical patterns of which even the participants might not be conscious. Very interesting stuff, though there is a thin line between preventing crime, which is good, and the "Pre-crime Thought Police" in Minority Report.